Week 12 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 6, 2008

 

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 11, 2008 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 2; Right - 16 = 87.5%
The Pick	The Result
Class 1A Sectional 33
Triton 42, LaVille 28	Triton 14-6
South Newton 49, Lake Station 8	South Newton 48-0
Class 2A Sectional 25
Rensselaer 27, Winamac 7	Rensselaer 55-27
Seeger 38, North Judson 28	WRONG... North Judson 62-34
Class 3A Sectional 18
Northwood 27, Culver Academy 14	Northwood 40-7
St. Joseph's 35, Marian 7	St. Joseph's 45-0
Class 3A Sectional 17
Knox 42, Clark 35,	Knox 32-18
ANDREAN 45, New Prairie 33	ANDREAN 37-14
Class 4A Sectional 9
Morton 42, Hammond 12	Morton 42-0
Griffith 21, Hobart 14	Griffith 35-14
Class 4A Sectional 10
Clay 29, Northridge 7	Clay 14-7
LOWELL 20, Plymouth 14	LOWELL 20-14 (OT)
Class 5A Sectional 2
LaPorte 42, South Bend Adams 28	LaPorte 37-27
Penn 28, Mishawaka 14	Penn 17-7
Class 5A Sectional 1
Valparaiso 33, Chesterton 17	WRONG... Chesterton 10-6
MERRILLVILLE 26, Munster 14	MERRILLVILLE 37-7

WEEK-TEN (11) RECAP from Friday, October 31, 2008:  Again, it's no great shakes to pick early round sectional games, because it's fairly obvious that half the state doesn't belong in the post-season.  God bless Lake Station, but they really weren't going to beat South Newton while Hammond and Morton was a rematch and Morton won by 8 TDs the first time.  The best pick numerically was Lowell 20, Plymouth 14, but that's misleading because that was an overtime game that was tied 14-14 after regulation.  I didn't really predict that.  Also, Lowell won in OT and Lowell quite rightfully declined to kick the extra point.  Lowell's Matt Berkos hasn't missed an extra point since September.  The true score of that game was probably 21-14.

The best pick?  Really?  Probably Knox over Clark by 19.  The final score was not correct, but the 19-point margin was.  Again, the sectional is largely are a hodge-podge of elite matchups and snorefests between haves and have-nots.  There's not a good reason not to seed the sectionals.  Aside from a few feel good games between losers, seeding would make it a better tournament from a competitive and an educational (getting what you earn) standpoint.
 

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 11)  14 of 16   = 87.5%
2008 (Week 10)  24 of 28   = 85.7%
2008 (Week 9)  9 of 11   = 81.8%
2008 (Week 8)  11 of 12   = 91.8%
2008 (Week 7)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 6)  9 of 11   = 81.9%
2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Year to Date:  106 of 142 = 74.6%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

MERRILLVILLE (11-07-2008) - A drastic weather change. The boys will practice in 70-degree sunshine most of the week only to play in 40-degree rain.  That's certainly going to keep scores down and make extra points a little iffy.  Mr. Picker's rules. You can't just pick area games now.  You have to select 16 games in the northern part of the state.  You actually have to study the results a little.  Don't have time?  Here, let me help!



CLASS 1A

Sectional 33: Triton [7-4] at South Newton [8-3]

KENTLAND (11-7-2008) The risk here is that South Newton is a speed and pass team, while Triton is a hard-running squad, led by Adam Creighbaum (5-11, 190).  I think Triton's gone as far as they can go and the 2-hour drive to Kentland won't help.

South Newton 27, Triton 14


Sectional 34: Southwood [9-2] at Southern Wells [11-0]

PONETO (11-7-2008) Southern Wells is a return-to-glory story.  They were 2-8 last season, but they returned 19 starters.  Southwood says: hey, we were 1-9 last year.  What about us?  Southwood has lost to 2A Oak Hill (11-0).  This might be an upset but Southwood uses that Wing-T offense and halfback Nick Driskill (2,300 yards in 2007), which will thrive in the rain.

Southwood 28, Southern Wells 20


CLASS 2A

Sectional 26: Oak Hill [11-0] at Lewis Cass [10-1]

WALTON (11-7-2008) One of the state's best games.  Cass has a big running game and a big offensive line led by Kitt O'Brien (6-7, 300) while Oak Hill has a balanced spread run-pass attack led by all-stater QB Adam Middlesworth (6-1, 190), who was 16-of-28 in the win over Rochester (9-2) last week.  No one has scored more than 18 in any game on Oak Hill all year.  But we're going to have bad weather.  Oak Hill plays a spread attack.  Cass is bigger.

Lewis Cass 20, Oak Hill  7


Sectional 25: Rensselaer [6-5] at North Judson [8-3]

NORTH JUDSON (11-7-2008) A rematch of a long-time rivals.  Judson won the earlier game 28-14, but Rensselaer has played a slightly tougher schedule, which includes 1A superpower Sheridan (10-1) and 3A Top-10 West Lafayette (11-0).  Both of these teams run the ball.  Judson ran for 527 yards last week.  Halfback Terry Howard (5-11, 190) ran for 200 yards.  Rensselaer is physically bigger, but they might also be slower.  In bad weather, I like Rensselaer this time.

Rensselaer 28, North Judson 26


CLASS 3A

Sectional 20: Yorktown [9-2] at West Lafayette [11-0]

WEST LAFAYETTE (11-7-2008) I'm not sure this is an even match.  Yorktown is very big with tackle David Blanton (6-4, 300) and all-state QB Jacob Walker (6-2, 190).  WL is much smaller, but QB Matt Lancaster (6-2, 182) leads an attack that simply hasn't been stopped.  No one has held WL under 4 TDs all year.  WL was 8-2 last year, losing when Lancaster got hurt.  At home it is their night.

West Lafayette 35, Yorktown 21


Sectional 19: Bellmont [10-1] at Leo [8-3]

LEO (11-7-2008) The Braves have only lost to 5A Homestead this year.  This is one of the few schools that has never won a sectional title and they were in the sectional title game in 2007.  It's Bellmont's time.  I do not believe Leo has defeated a team with a winning record and they won't do it Friday night, either.

Bellmont 35, Leo 7

Sectional 18: NorthWood [9-2] at (SB) St. Joseph's [9-2]

SOUTH BEND (11-7-2008) St. Joseph's was in the state title game last year while Northwood is the 2005 state champ and that QB Skyler Titus is still playing for the Panthers. Northwood lost to Plymouth (10-1) and Concord (9-2) while St. Joe lost to Washington (7-3) and Penn (8-3).  The St. Joe defense has three shutouts in a row.  They can handle anything Northwood can do.

St. Joseph's 21, Northwood 13

Sectional 17: Knox [7-4] at ANDREAN [5-6]

MERRILLVILLE (11-7-2008) Andrean plays a 4A and 5A schedule so they should excel in the 3A playoffs.  Knox did beat North Judson at the start of the year, but that's the problem.  They play 2A and 3A schools.  Other than 2A Bishop Noll, Andrean does not see a 3A school until the post-season.  The Niners are ready and they are at home.  Back-up QB Richard Schmidt has settled in and HB Kyle Kovach has seven playoff TDs already.  Both teams have had large scale ups-and-downs this year, but factor in that two-hour drive from Starke County to Merrillville.

ANDREAN 42, Knox 21

CLASS 4A

SECTIONAL 12: Muncie South [8-3] at Delta [11-0]

MUNCIE (11-7-2008) Delta returned 20 starters off a team that lost in the sectional last year.  They beat Muncie South 40-7 earlier this year and I don't know how it can go another way.  South has the most unique player in the state in Jamil Smith (5-7, 120), who leads a team that averages 40 points per game.  Smith passed for 2,600 yards and ran for 1600 in 2007.  He really is 5-foot-7 and 120 pounds.  But Delta is much bigger and stronger and they seem destined to meet Bishop Dwenger (11-0).

Delta 35, Muncie South 16


SECTIONAL 11: Wayne [6-5] at Bishop Dwenger [11-0]

FORT WAYNE (11-7-2008) This is a mismatch.  Dwenger won the first match by 6 TDs and Wayne really hasn't beaten anybody who's much good.  This is a really bad sectional this year and Dwenger, which is shooting for its 18th sectional title, is the only good team in it.  Dwenger is a champ of the state's toughest, non-5A league, the Summit Athletic Conference. They are 4-0 against 5A teams and they beat 2A state champ Bishop Luers.

Bishop Dwenger 42, Wayne 0

SECTIONAL 10: Clay [6-5] at LOWELL [11-0]

LOWELL (11-7-2008) This is a lopsided sectional and Lowell won the tough part.  To win, Clay is expected to stop the Devils' run attack, break through on a Lowell defense that allows 9.5 points per game, survive a two-hour bus ride, resist Lake County's cold and rain and ignore over 3,000 Lowell fans.  They have about as much chance of meeting all those expectations as Barrack Obama does of meeting his.

LOWELL 35, Clay 12


SECTIONAL 9: Morton [7-4] at Griffith [7-4]

GRIFFITH (11-7-2008) These teams have met twice in each of the past four seasons and Griffith has won all eight games.  Earlier this year, Griffith blasted Morton 40-13.  There is nothing that indicates that Morton can beat the Panthers based on those nine meetings in five seasons.  The Panthers are the defending sectional champs.  They are bigger and stronger.  Plus, Griffith is a rushing and defense bad weather option team.  Someday, Morton will beat Griffith.  Friday is not that day.

Griffith 41, Morton 16


CLASS 5A

SECTIONAL 4:  (West Lafayette) Harrison [6-5] at Carmel [10-1]

CARMEL (11-7-2008) Oh my goodness.  Do they have to play this one?  Harrison gives up 23 a game while Carmel has one of the nation's top QB's in Morgan Newton (6-4, 210).  Harrison has only beaten two teams with a winning record.  They will get smoked here and they know it.  Carmel is the two-time defending Northern 5A semistate champ.  Harrison starts the basketball season Monday.

Carmel 49, Harrison 7
 

FORT WAYNE (11-7-2008) Both teams won by one point last week and Snider beat South just 21-7 to start the season in August.  These are league rivals and that may make this game closer than it should be.  Snider has a top QB in senior Matt Elliott (6-0, 170) and they are the defending sectional champs.  South is solid defensively, but they only average 17 points a game.

Snider 28, (FW) South 7
 

SECTIONAL 2: LaPorte [4-7] at Penn [8-3]

OSCEOLA (11-7-2008) LaPorte is led by power runners Bryce Holland (6-0, 205) and Carlton Austin (6-1, 213), who has 450 yards rushing in two sectional games.  Penn gave up 220 yards rushing to Mishawaka last week and they won't stop LaPorte running the ball.  But LaPorte has allowed over 300 yards in 11 games.  Penn isn't a great offensive team, but at home, they can outscore the Slicers eventually.

Penn 42, LaPorte 28
 

CHESTERTON (11-7-2008) If you go back to start of the season... this was not a totally unexpected matchup.  Almost every coach in the DAC has claimed they were picked to finish last in the preseason.  But Merrillville was picked to finish first.  1,000-yard sophomore Denzell Pierce has complimented big QB Dolapo Macarthy.  Chesterton's Aaron Knight, playing with a broken hand, has complimented QB Adam Miller.  In bad weather, this one will be close, but Merrillville has Macarthy, who can steal the game at the end.

MERRILLVILLE 20, Chesterton 12


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Revised: November 06, 2008 .