A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith
10-06-2008
VALPARAISO (10-10-2008)
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With the playoffs on the horizon, we
get close looks at who's got real
hopes of visiting the new Lucas Oil
Arena in downtown Indianapolis and
who needs more breaks than Chicago
baseball.
In 5A, Valparaiso (6-1) and Chesterton (6-1) continued to move towards a sectional showdown with Crown Point (3-4) and Merrillville (3-4) looking for a favorable draw. In Michiana, Penn (4-3) has made a major revival. They shut down Mishawaka (5-2) last week 17-0 to clinch the Northern Indiana Conference (NIC) title and they will again be a formidable post-season foe. In Fort Wayne, 5A Snider (7-0) beat 2A Luers (5-2), the defending state champion, 29-21, last week to virtually clinch the Summit Athletic Conference title. Snider would be the semistate foe for the winner of the regional between 5A Sectional 1 vs. Sectional 2 (probably Penn). It appears the only team with a chance at that level is Valparaiso, who defeated Penn 10-9 early in the year.
In 4A, Plymouth (7-0) stopped Concord (6-1) but there will almost certainly be a rematch in 4A sectional 10. That will be the most significant draw Tuesday night (Oct. 7). Which one of Lowell (7-0), Plymouth (7-0) and Concord (6-1) does not have to face the other two. That team will be a big favorite. In 4A Sectional 9, there are some teams that have hit on hard times. But everybody's hoping for a Hobart-Griffith quarterfinal.
In Class 2A Sectional 25, Wheeler (7-0) has played an awful schedule while North Judson (4-3) and Rensselaer (4-3) have dealt with much tougher opposition. Seeger (5-2) has a five-game winning streak, but all against 1A competition. Seeger's game next week at 3A No. 2 West Lafayette (7-0) will say a lot about them. Rensselaer (4-3), which has played the toughest schedule in Sectional 25, faces three-time defending 1A state champ and current No. 1 Sheridan (7-0) Friday and if they can hang with Sheridan, they can beat Wheeler. Wheeler needs to avoid Rensselaer early.
In 3A Sectional 17, there's a lot of teams that have taken some heavy-duty losses. Calumet (6-1) has played virtually the same schedule that Wheeler has and the fact that they are not 7-0 tells everything you need to know there. Andrean doesn't want to draw a road game in Knox (4-3) or New Prairie (4-3). In 1A Sectional 33, again, it's location, location, location. If you're Whiting, you don't mind playing South Newton (4-3) but you'd rather the game not be in Kentland.
Coaches don't say this out loud, but
everything changes once the draw is
out. There no longer is a 100% focus
on the next game and there shouldn't
be. Once you find out who your
sectional quarterfinal foe is, you
had better be working on that team
because your final two regular
season opponents have all the value
of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
1.) 5A Valparaiso (6-1)
3.) 5A Chesterton (6-1)
This is the second most exciting
week of the year because everybody
gets that playoff assignment and
they chart out that road to the
Dome (Or is it 'the Luke'?).
2007 (6-5), 2006 (3-6), 2005 (5-5), 2004
(6-5), 2003 (5-6)
VALPARAISO:
Valparaiso continues to look like the
top team. They won on the road at Merrillville 24-14 with 500 total yards.
The Vikings are 5-0 with Zack Livovich at QB and I don't even think Chesterton
feels they have a better team. The DAC title will be on the line this week
when Valpo hosts Portage (4-3, 3-2 DAC) and Crown Point (3-4, 3-2 DAC) host
Chesterton (6-1, 5-0). But you've got to be able to look at the total
offense totals Valpo is running up: 500 vs. Merrillville, 440 vs. Michigan
City, 325 vs. Crown Point, 300 vs. Penn. No one has scored more than 17 points
on Valparaiso all year. Lowell had an argument a couple of weeks ago.
But not now.
2.) 4A Lowell (7-0)
2007 (13-2), 2006 (7-6), 2005 (11-4), 2004
(9-4), 2003 (11-2)
LOWELL:
The Devils
got everybody on the
bench into a 63-0 win at Hammond. If you take away the neutral site loss
against undefeated Reitz Memorial in the RCA Dome last November, Lowell is
undefeated on other teams' home fields for two years now. The Devils don't
throw much, but QB Kurt Monix is averaging 23 yards per completion. Senior
receiver Jake Belt (5-8, 160) has caught 12 passes for an insane 323 yards.
Lowell didn't get an all-out passing attack from Hammond last week, but I again
suggest they'll see one this week from Munster and lefty QB Joe Gill. When
you look at who Valparaiso and Lowell have played, you cannot make a good
argument for Lowell having had a better season. But all that becomes
irrelevant after 6:00 p.m. on Oct. 7.
2007 (6-4), 2006 (5-6), 2005 (3-8), 2004
(5-5), 2003 (7-4)
CHESTERTON:
The Trojans improved to 5-0 in
the DAC with a 28-10 win over Lake Central. QB Aaron Knight gained 94 yards on
24 carries. Chesterton blocked two punts and scored 14 points on LC, which
was held to just 86 yards of total offense. I will say this again. I
don't know how far you can go in 5A with virtually no passing attack.
Snider does it and they are 7-0. Lots of small school teams do it.
But in 5A, you eventually run up against someone who can shut you down on the
ground. This isn't the OJ trial. The jury is still out here.
The Trojans play in Crown Point's Homecoming this week and host Merrillville in
week nine.
4.) 5A Merrillville (3-4)
2007 (12-2), 2006 (7-5), 2005 (11-3), 2003
(5-6), 2004 (6-5)
MERRILLVILLE:
The Pirates
gave up 504 yards to Valparaiso, something I did not think would happen again
to the Pirates after the Warren Central game.
5.) 5A Portage (5-2)
2007 (5-5), 2006 (6-5), 2005 (2-8), 2004 (8-4), 2003 (11-2)
PORTAGE:
The Indians
won in overtime 20-14 over Michigan City on a 3-yard run by big Austin Orlich,
fighting off a third straight loss.
Injured
runner Ryan Cherry returned to carry 12 times for 30 yards.
The
Indians trailed 14-7 with seven minutes left,
but they rallied and they'll take it, breaking a two-game losing streak.
An
average of 24 points a game isn't great considering that 40 of those came
against 0-7 Highland.
But
the Indians don't need to be playing their best now.
They
need to be there in three weeks.
Defensively,
they're still giving up just 16 points a game and that'll win for you.
But
they're going to have to score 17 if it's
going to win for them.
6.)
4A Hobart (6-1)
2007 (8-4), 2006 (10-2), 2005 (6-6),
2004 (9-2), 2003 (5-7)
HOBART:
Hobart got a late
field goal, his third of the game from Michael Josifovski to nip Munster 24-23.
This is one of those games for which you can't say much team wise. Hobart
only gained 210 yards at Munster, but when your kicker hits a last minute field
goal, you always think you can win. One thing about Hobart's schedule.
They have played only two sectional rivals so far (Lowell and KV are in
Sectional 10) and it's hard to tell how they're going to do in 4A Sectional Nine
this month. Hobart can still get hooked up in a three-way tie for the
Northwest Crossroads Conference title, but I think their focus is simply to win
the final two games in the Brickie Bowl, which closes after this year.
7.) 5A CROWN POINT (3-4)
2007 (8-3), 2006 (12-1), 2005 (11-1), 2004 (4-7), 2003 (5-5)
CROWN POINT:
Crown Point had scored only
60 points and gained just 1200 yards all year until last week when they rolled
up an unofficial 417 total yards and beat LaPorte 35-28. There are two
explanations (and you can take the one you want) how that happened:
1.) CP finally ran into a weak defense after playing one of the state's
toughest schedules for six weeks.
2.) They finally had a good night on the offensive line, leading to
100-yard rushing nights for QB Marcus Shrewsbury (13 carries, 106 yards) and
first-time senior fullback Evan Nikrin (18 carries, 114 yards).
Is it real? We'll know Friday when CP tries to stop the five-game winning
streak of DAC leader Chesterton (6-1).
8.) 4A Griffith (3-4)
2007 (9-4), 2006 (12-2), 2005 (12-1), 2004 (9-3), 2003 (7-5)
GRIFFITH: Yes,
I still think Griffith is better than Munster. The Panthers shut out
Highland 41-0 last week with 313 rushing yards. The lack of a rushing game
has hurt them and it was back last week, although against a very weak opponent.
With Andrean (3-4) and East Chicago (3-4), the focus for the Panthers is the
state tournament now and they need to draw anyone but Hobart in the first round.
I know Griffith is a young team in some positions, but the defense here also is
giving up just 16 points a game and the losses have been to Lowell (7-0),
Munster (5-2), Hobart (6-1) and 5A Merrillville (3-4). I have a feeling
some really miserable weather wouldn't hurt this team.
9. 5A Michigan
City (2-5)
2007 (2-8), 2006 (1-9), 2005
(6-5), 2004 (4-6), 2003 (3-7)
MICHIGAN
CITY:
You
know the rules here. An
overtime game is actually a tie.
Michigan City can't look at it that
way, but they are improving, despite
the 20-14 overtime loss to Portage.
Adam Harmon carried 21 times for 73
yards and two TDs. The Wolves
are giving themselves a chance to
win now and they need a win over
neighbor and rival LaPorte (2-5)
this week or Crown Point (3-4) next
week to boost confidence going into
5A Sectional 2. I still think
this team has a post-season upset in
them. The last place team in the
DAC this year is still awfully good.
10.) 5A Lake Central (3-4)
2007 (7-5), 2006 (4-6), 2005 (2-8), 2004 (1-9), 2003 (1-9)
ST. JOHN:
LC
must feel like the Cubs. They can't stop the losing. Only 85 total
yards and five first downs in a 28-10 home loss to Chesterton. Only 17 points
in the last three games. I don't know what's happened. Like the
Cubs, it's a replay of the 2007 fall when they started fast and lost their
offense in October. LC was 5-1 last year and finished at 7-5. They
were 3-1 this year and they'll need what would be a major upset of Merrillville
or Valparaiso in the next two weeks to avoid going 3-6. They need to draw
neighbor Munster in the post-season. I don't know who else they can handle
right now.
On the outside looking in...
5A Munster (5-2)
2007 (3-7),
2006 (5-5), 2005 (3-7), 2004 (4-6), 2003 (8-3)
MUNSTER: Munster
could have gotten a big win last week,
but a late field goal nipped them 24-23.
The
Mustangs fumbled three times and gave up a game they should have won.
On the plus
side...
both losses
have been by one point.
On the down
side, the best team they've beaten is Griffith (3-4).
They have to
commit to throwing the ball this week at Lowell.
If
they get conservative and try to run and control the ball, they will go down
hard.
This
just isn't a particularly big, strong or fast team.
They have
overachieved and, actually, that is to their credit.
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Revised: October 06, 2008
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